“Our military power continues to grow,” the document menaces, pledging to “Modernize and strengthen our military so it is equipped for the era of strategic competition.”įor these reasons, the document threatens, “nations are seeing once again why it’s never a good bet to bet against the United States of America.” “Our strategy is rooted in our national interests,” Biden declares. These opening remarks echo Biden’s declaration in March that the world is on the brink of a “new world order,” and that “we’ve got to lead it.”īiden’s strategy, like Trump’s 2018 National Security Strategy, is violently nationalistic, declaring that the United States acts not in the interests of humanity or of its allies, but fundamentally to preserve its selfish interests. “The terms of geopolitical competition between the major powers will be set.” “We are now in the early years of a decisive decade for America and the world,” declares Biden’s personal introduction to the document. Mark Milley (left) with President Joe Biden (AP Photo/Steve Ruark) Moral of the story: the prospect of a WWIII depends as much on a Putin or Xi’s great power politics as on how crazy each dictator – or democratically elected populist authoritarians – can get within his/her own country.Joint Cheifs of Staff Chairman Gen. In the world’s most densely populated region, communal violence is an extremely underrated political risk. Continued populist authoritarianism across countries as disparate as Myanmar and the Philippines could produce hundreds of millions of refugees in the years ahead, sparking war between nations. For years, rising nationalism has unleashed a pandemic of repression and majoritarian violence across much of South and Southeast Asia, impacting nearly three billion people. That brings us to the third - and in my mind, the most insidious - risk: the rise of nationalist ego. But he might also decide that a war with Taiwan could reestablish his floundering popularity and take attention off the economy. With that in mind, Xi may decide that a war with Taiwan (and the US) is not worth the risk. Thanks to the government’s ham-handed “zero-Covid” policy, China’s economy has suffered immensely this year. Will Xi attack Taiwan and spark WWIII? That may depend on how Xi sees China’s economic woes. And like Putin, Xi has his eyes on a neighbour: Taiwan. While much of the world watches Ukraine, Xi has quietly expanded China’s military footprint in the seas, including through seeking treaties with Pacific island-states that might allow the deployment of troops. China’s Xi Jinping is not only as vain as Putin he also has far more resources at his disposal than Russia’s sputtering economy has ever permitted. (In fact, hours after his deputy foreign minister warned Finland and Sweden of “consequences”, Putin told them that he had “no problems” with them).Ĭhina, on the other hand, is far scarier.

A war with Finland and Sweden would be suicidal for Russia, especially because it risks wider confrontation with far more powerful militaries. He has since wound down his ambition to consolidating friendlier territory in eastern Ukraine. That attempt was botched, and Putin replaced the man in charge of his war. In its early days, Moscow tried to go straight for the jugular and take the capital city, Kyiv. In truth, Russia has struggled in Ukraine. If they succeed, many believe, Russia will attack them.īut it’s not so simple. Ironically, that has come to have a greater probability now than it did before Putin started his war to prevent it: Finland and Sweden have junked decades of neutrality and applied for NATO membership. Putin’s initial pretext for the war was a purported threat of NATO expansion right to its borders. Yet, the war in Ukraine is far less explosive than most people think. In 1914, the murder of an understated Austrian archduke lit the fuse on the first world war (although there were, of course, other causes that had brought the situation to a simmer).

In fairness, countries have previously hurtled into a world war over far less. Everyone I meet seems to think that the Ukraine war could just be the opening shots of World War III. And across much of the world, nationalist egos are on the rise.īut if there is one thing that I learnt very early on about global geopolitics, it is that there is never a black-and-white, yes-or-no answer to most questions concerning it. Meanwhile, China has quietly militarised the Asian seas. In Ukraine, Russia’s aimless war is now over three months-old and has killed more than 4,000 innocent civilians. Everywhere I go these days, folks seem to ask me the same question: “Is there going to be a third World War?”

World war 3